Monday, October 22, 2007

Is commercial the next subprime?

Lenders and brokers both are gritting their teeth and gripping the wheel with white knuckles over the question of "who's next?" Given that the business model of collateralized debt securities has taken such a beating, it's no wonder that there's a worry that commercial loans, FHA loans, conventional loans, etc., will all start falling through the floor.

It doesn't help much when people issue statements such as this:
"...inflated commercial property values, aggressively structured loans, and relatively high bank exposure for many mid-tier banks are 'a fairly toxic mix of factors.' "

Then of course there's
this graph right next to it.

Traditionally commercial loans have been on shorter amortizations and more aggressive adjustments than residential loans. The same kinds of opportunities to profit by refinancing are in front of property owners right now.

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